Steve Davis' weekly column, drilling down on five hot topics in American soccer
1. So, who wants to face … Seattle?
The race for top two in the West is and always was important. Getting a first-round bye and skipping that white knuckle elimination match doesn’t just subtract one chance to tumble quickly out of the playoffs. It also significantly reduces the physical and logistical burden heading into that quickly arriving conference semifinal two-legger.
Now, if you look at the way the West is stacking up, there’s another reason that makes finishing “Top 2” way, way better than finishing third.
It’s Seattle.
Going into Wednesday’s matches, the 7th-place Sounders still have ground to make upin the standings just to reach the post-season. But they have those games in hand, and they certainly have momentum. Consider Sunday’s result (a 4-2 win at the LA Galaxy) as a punctuation mark on their recent run of good form.
Nicolas Lodeiro is scoring and assisting at prodigious rates and Jordan Morris has raised his game in Clint Dempsey’s absence. The Sounders already look like a threat to make big noise in the playoffs – but only if they can reach the playoffs. If they make up the ground, think about this:
The Sounders look at bit vulnerable in central defense, where Panamanian international Roman Torres still looks like he’s reacting rather than reading and anticipating. But a return from injury by captain Brad Evans could potentially solidify the Sounders’ back line (if that’s where interim manager Brian Schmetzer wants to use him, that is).
If Schmetzer and his men can lap one of the teams in front of them (6th-place Portland or 5th-place SKC) they aren’t likely to lap both. That means a likely 6th-place finish. And that means an elimination match against the 3rd-place finisher.
So there it is. Dallas, Colorado and the Galaxy (and maybe Real Salt Lake) are fighting for those top two spots. They would want a top-two spot anyway – now there’s extra special incentive. Honestly, doesn’t anyone relish the thought of taking on Lodeiro and the sizzling Sounders in an elimination match right now?
2. Let’s talk about that red card week in MLS from last spring
Week 5 in Major League Soccer seems like a long time ago. It was spring then; summer has come and gone since then. Presidential candidacy has been winnowed from approximately 74 to exactly two actual contenders.
Still, let’s get into the Wayback Machine and return to April for a moment, because that memorable and controversial Week 5 can teach us something important.
That was the occasion of the (pretty much annual) early season panic over red cards. “There are too many! Referees are handing out red cards like Bed Bath and Beyond coupons!” Yeah, that kind of stuff.
Four red cards were delivered that weekend. Totaled up, that made 16 ejections over 42 matches.
The alarmists became … well, alarmed. “It’s ruining games,” said Bruce Arena. Others echoed the sentiment.
Meanwhile, more reasonable voices tried to point out that early season red cards were up slightly from recent years, but hardly to unprecedented levels.
Now, with a larger sample and a little more time for calm reflection, we see that red cards have, as the clear-eyed predicted, returned to normal levels. There have been 72 ejections through 302 matches. That’s .24 a match (or roughly one every fourth MLS contest). That is smack dab in line with “normal” historic levels. Here is the rate of red cards for the previous five seasons.
- 2015 - .26 / per match
- 2014 - .27/ per match
- 2013 - .24/ per match
- 2012 - .19/ per match
- 2011 - .28/ per match
The thing is, that predictable return to normal levels is probably no accident. Here’s why:
We need those weeks, like the aforementioned memorable and controversial Round 5. Yes, we need a moment like that – and we probably need it every year.
A week like that one raises awareness, which everyone probably needs. Rules are there for a reason, for player safety and match integrity. Officials set rules and players have to get in line. That’s the way life works. Still, players push boundaries – that also is the way life works.
So a window like Week 5 draws a circle around the issue. It gets everyone talking. Specifically, it alerts everyone that men in the middle actually do plan to enforce all the rules, especially the tweaks and areas of emphasis they went over in preseason bulletins and in talks with teams. Players and coaches needed to know that it wasn’t toothless talk.
So we get a Week 5. Everyone hoots and hollers about it, some lamenting the high injustice of it all. But never mind the histrionics and the theater of it all. It’s part of the balance; we need that to happen once a year to get everyone’s head clear on this stuff.
3. Has Wade Barrett done enough in Houston?
The news out of Port Dynamo is how beautifully Houston is playing spoiler these days. No, it’s not much to grab onto if you’re a supporter of the Orange, but it’s something. And when you’re famished, even a couple of small crackers taste pretty yummy.
So yanking points away from San Jose, Seattle, Sporting KC, RSL, Portland and Toronto lately must be a bit of a soothing balm, at least, on the nasty scrape that has been the last couple of years around BBVA Compass Stadium.
The bigger point to consider here is this: whether interim manager Wade Barrett has done enough to hold the spot for the 2017 season?
The short answer is “yes,” although it comes with some caveats.
Since Owen Coyle’s dismissal, the Dynamo record under Barrett (4-4-9) isn’t much to write books about. Then again, the record in the last three years (subtracting Barrett’s summer contributions) shows a club adrift. In the final year under Dominic Kinnear and then a year-plus under Coyle, Houston was a shabby 25-38-17.
In that framing, Barrett’s ability to slowly collect points starts looking pretty good, doesn’t it?
The relative success is about attention to defense. Better organization and more commitment to what’s happening without the ball has the Dynamo conceding just a tick above a goal a game now (18 goals in 17 games under Barrett, a former defender). The Dynamo has allowed more than one goal in just three of those matches – which is why they are “in” most matches, able to pick up draws, at least.
Again, this alone won’t win championships. But they aren’t in position to hunt championships in South Texas right now; they just need to get back into playoff conversations; the Dynamo will soon miss post-season action for a third year running.
Scoring goals has been the Dynamo problem. But that’s not really Barrett’s fault; they just don’t have enough creative or striking power on the roster. Barrett hasn’t proven he can put a team on the field that can score goals – but he has done enough to deserve a chance if provided meatier attacking options. It’s on the Dynamo front office (including Barrett) to get some of that in the off-season.
4. Dempsey had not choice; but Seattle will have hard choices
Everyone wants Clint Dempsey to focus on his health. He has a family. He has kids. He has lots of years of living (and fishing!) ahead of him. Maybe more soccer, too; we’ll see.
Maybe Dempsey, whose 2016 season now is officially over due to ongoing heart issues, will return next year to Seattle and MLS next year at age 34. Again, that’s all about his personal safety.
But there is a business side to all this, one that Seattle has no choice but to think about. And the Sounders aren’t the only ones; the United States national team has a stake here, too. (More on that in a moment.)
The Sounders are fortunate in that they are already likely to have a DP slot available for 2017 regardless of Dempsey’s ability to safely return. That’s because Nelson Valdez’s contract is expiring. The Paraguayan attacker hasn’t generated anything close to DP-level production. With a mere 1 goal and 2 assists in 27 appearances, that’s not even “standard MLS starter” production. He’s been a huge DP bust, and you can be sure he won’t be around CenturyLink next year – not on a Designated Player salary, at least.
So they’ll have a DP chip to play one way or the other; which eases the planning burden.
Still, Dempsey’s ability to return in 2017 does affect the club’s roster planning. Remember, they dug themselves a huge hole in 2016 when Obafemi Martins bolted just before the season, leaving a club of such big ambition thin in the area of high quality attackers. (This is where 15 or so clubs around the league say, “Welcome to our world, where we aren’t always blessed with three high quality DPs on the roster all the doggone time!” But this is Seattle, and this is how they do things, so ….)
So expect Seattle GM Garth Lagerwey to have a file of “DP candidates” at the ready soon; it’s just a matter of whether he’s going to chase one or two of them in the fast-approaching offseason.
Further, Dempsey’s ability to return in 2017 affects Seattle’s expansion draft protected list, which is due early in December.
On the national team, it’s not so much about “planning” as it’s about “strategic thinking.” National team manager Jurgen Klinsmann knows the team has to wean itself eventually from ongoing Dempsey dependence; this just expedites the process. Having him in the pipeline always created some level of comfort; the guy who scored goals in three World Cups was still there to provide a big goal when needed. Now, the period of “moving on” has to start pretty much today. They may have Dempsey’s talent and experience at some point, but they certainly must plan for otherwise.
So there will be extra urgency to ensure an able, experienced hitman hand (Jozy Altidore?) is around for the big moments. Plus, Dempsey’s ability to return affects tactical planning in different ways. If he’s not around, can they plan to press a little higher (since his minutes are most likely to be replaced by a younger set of legs)?
Can they focus tactically on more extensive use of wingers (Christian Pulisic?) since Dempsey can no longer be the attacking focus? Dempsey’s freelancing ways may have discouraged this previously; for all the great things “Deuce” provided, he just wasn’t a center forward who would reliably perform a centrally stationed center forward’s duties with wingers alongside.
So good luck to the guy. If you follow the national team, you know what Dempsey has meant to U.S. Soccer. If you follow MLS, you know what the guy means to matters around CenturyLink Field.
Sentimentally set aside, the deciders around him will need a Plan A and a Plan B.
5. The Little Five
5a. I had my “say” on Tata Martino in last week’s High Five. (Item No. 2 here.) It’s a risk. But we should note this: It’s ambitious, out-of-the-box thinking. It also makes sense as Atlanta pursues its personnel center pieces, players like rumored inbound midfielder Andrés Guardado now at Dutch club PSV Eindhoven. Places like New York and Los Angeles don’t need “recruiting incentives” to help lure top men. Other spots might, and Atlanta is probably one of them. (Especially when they play home games on artificial turf.) Someone like Martino, former Barcelona and Argentina manager, is just-add-water credibility. Players like Guardado are certainly more likely consider Atlanta now.
5b. If there was any silver lining for an LA Galaxy teamthrashed at home Sunday, it was Robbie Keane's two goal performance. He still wasn’t anything close to tippy-top-Keane. Still, two goals will go far in restoring confidence, which LA will certainly need going forward, especially considering …
5c. It seems almost inconceivable, but it looks like goalkeeping will be the Galaxy’s weak point once again going into a playoff season. Dan Kennedy simply did not work out the way everyone expected, leaving Brian Rowe as the starter. He’s not bad – but he’s been inconsistent, and isn’t making the one or two game-changing saves that teams often need.to get over the hump None of the four goals allowed to Seattle Sunday were his “fault,” particularly. (Although if you watch Ozzie Alonso’s screamer, you’ll see that he’s moving the wrong way, and certainly not anticipating a shot as the Sounders’ midfielder put his foot through the ball.) Last year,Donovan Ricketts’ blunders were largely to blame as the Galaxy tumbled from the playoffs early. This year … well, we’ll see.
5d. In modern sports, TV and sponsor dollars are more important than gate revenue. But that doesn’t mean gate receipts aren’t important, especially in MLS, where a greater percentage of revenue comes from game-day attendance. So this is worth pointing out here and there: As recently as 2010, MLS attendance averaged 16,801, which wasn’t bad. But so far in 2016, average crowd counts are at 21,504 – which is pretty impressive.
5e. Just so I have this right: If you point out a clear flaw in Jordan Morris’ skill set (that he needs a left foot to take his game to the next level) that makes you a “hater?” The guy is good. A lot of us have said so and written so. Over and over again. And he’s not just scoring goals now, he’s scoring important goals. And setting records, too. None of that makes him exempt from critical analysis.
Steve Davis has covered Major League Soccer since is first kick in 1996. He writes on-line for FourFourTwo and co-hosts the weekly radio show/podcast ESPN Soccer Today on 103.3 FM in Dallas. Davis is also the radio play-by-play voice for FC Dallas on 100.7 FM.
